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SUMMARY:Deterministic models: twenty years on. II. Spatially inhomogeneous
  models - Pellis\, L (Imperial College London)
DTSTART:20130819T110000Z
DTEND:20130819T113000Z
UID:TALK46694@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Mustapha Amrani
DESCRIPTION:Building on the previous talk\, I will provide an overview of 
 recent methodological developments for deterministic models of infection s
 pread in populations with an explicit spatial structure or\, more generall
 y\, models in which local depletion of susceptibles makes standard techniq
 ues for single and multitype models fail. In this case\, linearising the d
 ynamics becomes non-trivial even in the early phases of the epidemic\, wit
 h repercussions on the definition of $R_0$ and the real-time growth rate. 
 In addition\, local scale effects\, which typically involve small number o
 f individuals\, challenge the very nature of deterministic models. Althoug
 h it can be argued that fundamental advances have been achieved through th
 e use of stochastic models\, deterministic techniques have not disappeared
  and are still key tools for capturing or approximating the average behavi
 our of large-scale systems. In this respect\, I will discuss pair formatio
 n models\, network models and moment-closure approx imations\, models with
  household or multiple levels of mixing\, metapopulation and spatial model
 s (e.g. kernel-based\, gravity and reaction-diffusion models). I will high
 light the motivations behind their development\, their strengths and limit
 ations\, as well as their successful applications in practical contexts. I
  will briefly conclude by commenting on the problem of model comparison an
 d selection and suggesting where I believe the future methodological chall
 enges for deterministic epidemic models lie.\n
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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