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CATEGORIES:Worms and Bugs
SUMMARY:Optimal Treatment of an SIS Disease with Two Strai
ns - Selma Telalagic\, Faculty of Economics
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20111024T120000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20111024T130000
UID:TALK33678AThttp://talks.cam.ac.uk
URL:http://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/33678
DESCRIPTION:This paper explores optimal treatment of an SIS (S
usceptible-Infected-Susceptible) disease that has
two strains with different infectivities. When we
assume that neither eradication nor full infection
are possible\, it is shown that there are two cat
egories of equilibria. First\, there are two conti
nua of interior equilibria characterised by a fixe
d\, positive total level of infection\, where both
strands of the disease prevail. Second\, there ar
e two sets of equilibria where one strand of the d
isease is eradicated asymptotically. The feasibili
ty of equilibria depends on parameter assumptions\
; a combination of low natural rate of recovery an
d large difference between infectivities leaves on
ly a small proportion of equilibria as feasible. S
imulations exploring the relationship between cost
and optimal policy are carried out. There exists
a parameter range such that\, counter-intuitively\
, it is optimal to allow the high-infectivity stra
in of the disease to prevail\, while asymptoticall
y eradicating the low-infectivity strain. Within t
his parameter range\, fixed and variable optimal p
olicy lead us to different steady states. There is
added benefit from policy flexibility.
LOCATION:DD47\, Cripps Court\, Queens' College
CONTACT:Prof. Julia Gog
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