BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//talks.cam.ac.uk//v3//EN BEGIN:VTIMEZONE TZID:Europe/London BEGIN:DAYLIGHT TZOFFSETFROM:+0000 TZOFFSETTO:+0100 TZNAME:BST DTSTART:19700329T010000 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYMONTH=3;BYDAY=-1SU END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:STANDARD TZOFFSETFROM:+0100 TZOFFSETTO:+0000 TZNAME:GMT DTSTART:19701025T020000 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYMONTH=10;BYDAY=-1SU END:STANDARD END:VTIMEZONE BEGIN:VEVENT CATEGORIES:Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series SUMMARY:New Newtonian Alchemy: Turning Noise into Signal - Cox\, P (Exeter) DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20101208T093000 DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20101208T103000 UID:TALK28313AThttp://talks.cam.ac.uk URL:http://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/28313 DESCRIPTION:This talk will summarise progress on the applicati on of three strands of the Newton Institute Mathem atical and Statistical Approaches to Climate Model ling and Prediction Programme\, which are all conn ected through the general notion of turning noise into signal: \n
\n(a) Maximum Entropy Produc tion (MEP) principles of the climate system applic ation to surface-to-atmosphere turbulent fluxes. ( b) Time-series techniques to give forewarning of c limate tipping points application to possible clim ate-driven Amazon forest dieback. (c) Fluctuation theories to determine climate system sensitivities using interannual variability of CO2 as a const raint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon t o climate change. \n\nIn the case of (b) an d (c) short-timescale variability is used to deter mine the vulnerability of the system to an abrupt change and a warming-induced release of land carbo n\, respectively. In (a)\, the application of MEP to vertical turbulent fluxes puts these noisy flux es at centre-stage in the climate system\, rather than being treated as a residual term in the surfa ce energy balance. \n\nThe Newton Institute programme has stimulated progress in all three of these areas. This talk will summarize the current state-of-play and suggest priorities for follow-o n research. LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute CONTACT:Mustapha Amrani END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR