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SUMMARY:Real-time nowcasting and forecasting of COVID-19 dynamics in Engla
 nd - Daniela De Angelis\, MRC Biostatistics Unit
DTSTART:20260422T181500Z
DTEND:20260422T200000Z
UID:TALK245959@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Peter Watson
DESCRIPTION:Daniela De Angelis directs a Cambridge team of statisticians w
 orking on “Real time monitoring of the SARS-COV2 pandemic”\, which has
  provided the official Public Health England real time estimates and proje
 ctions of the state of the pandemic in England.\nResearch on developing th
 e statistical model for the COVID-19 pandemic first began in response to t
 he 2009 swine influenza pandemic\, in collaboration with Public Health Eng
 land (PHE). The aim was to develop models for estimating and predicting th
 e spread of a potential influenza pandemic\, using information from multip
 le data sources available from PHE.\nKey outputs of this work were the mod
 elling and statistical methodology\, and computer code\, to implement a mo
 del for the spread of influenza within a population and across geographica
 l areas.\nUsing data from different streams accumulating over the course o
 f the epidemic\, the model could be used to provide timely estimation and 
 prediction of key epidemic quantities.\nIn a number of publications\, Dani
 ela and her team have investigated extensions to the model\, including dif
 ferent approaches to include regional information and alternative algorith
 ms to reduce the computational time to produce results in a timely manner.
  \n
LOCATION:City House\, Hills Road\, Cambridge CB2 1RY
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