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CATEGORIES:Financial History Seminar
SUMMARY:'Muddling through or tunnelling through?’ UK monet
 ary and fiscal exceptionalism and the Great Inflat
 ion - Ryland Thomas (Bank of England)
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20260202T170000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20260202T183000
UID:TALK242656AThttp://talks.cam.ac.uk
URL:http://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/242656
DESCRIPTION:Discussion of the causes of the Great Inflation in
  the UK during the 1970s has centred around the re
 lative importance of ‘bad luck’ – the occurrence o
 f unusually large commodity price and supply-side 
 shocks – and ‘bad policy’ reflecting failures in b
 oth monetary and prices and incomes policies. By r
 econsidering the historical and empirical record o
 f inflation from 1950s to the early 1990s we show 
 that the persistence of the Great Inflation in the
  UK cannot fully be explained by these factors\, a
 lthough these can account for some of the major fl
 uctuations. Instead\, underlying inflation and inf
 lation expectations appear to be the result of a s
 equence of regime shifts. We argue those regime sh
 ifts are as much related to fundamental changes in
  fiscal policy as they are to monetary policy and 
 union reforms. Our empirical evidence suggests tha
 t fiscal policy was at the heart of many of the pr
 oblems in the UK during the Great Inflation. In co
 ntrast to most of British history\, it was not use
 d to stabilise the public finances. Instead\, it w
 as used to keep unemployment down and growth up\, 
 to subsidise losers from terms of trade shocks and
  to secure deals with the unions.
LOCATION:John Bradfield Room\, Darwin College and Zoom
CONTACT:Dr Duncan Needham
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