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CATEGORIES:Rouse Ball Lectures
SUMMARY:The Mathematics of Epidemics: History Of and Recen
t Developments in Epidemic Outbreak Analysis - Pro
fessor Sir Roy Anderson\, FRS\, FMedSci \, Profes
sor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology\, Imperial
College London
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20070517T120000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20070517T130000
UID:TALK24123AThttp://talks.cam.ac.uk
URL:http://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/24123
DESCRIPTION:Human fascination with epidemics of infectious dis
eases and the associated patterns of mortality has
a long history. Examples include the epidemics di
scussed by the Chinese scholar\, Ssu Kwong\, who l
ived during the Sing Dynasty (AD 960-1279)\, the e
pidemics of the Greek scholar Hippocrates (458-377
BC)\, the rudimentary statistics of John Grant (1
620-74) and William Petty (1623-87)\, who studied
the London Bills of Mortality in the seventeenth c
entury\, and the detailed description of epidemics
by Richard Mead ('Discourse on Plagues' 1673-1754
) who so nearly interested Isaac Newton in the geo
metry of epidemic curves.\n\nThe foundations of to
day's approaches to the mathematical description o
f infectious disease transmission and control go b
ack to the 1700s with Daniel Bernoulli's work in 1
760 on a simple mathematical model to evaluate the
effectiveness of variolation to protect against s
mallpox. Daniel Bernoulli was one of a number of e
arly mathematicians who turned their skills to pro
bability problems raised by gamblers - often at th
e card tables in Monte Carlo.\n\nThe lecture will
chart some of this history\, starting with the wor
k of Ronald Ross the Nobel Laureate who discovered
the role of mosquitoes in the transmission of mal
aria\, and moving through to the sophisticated mod
els in use today for planning for an influenza pan
demic. The application of mathematical approaches
to further understanding of disease transmission a
nd control will be illustrated by reference to rec
ent epidemics such as HIV and AIDS\, Foot and Mout
h disease\, SARS and Bovine Spongiform Encephalopa
thy (BSE).
LOCATION:Room 3\, Mill Lane Lecture Rooms\, 8 Mill Lane\, C
ambridge.
CONTACT:
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