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SUMMARY:From Perception to Prediction: Modelling Pastoral (Im)Mobility in 
 the West Sahel - Aline Van Driessche\, University of Cambridge
DTSTART:20251107T130000Z
DTEND:20251107T140000Z
UID:TALK239695@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:114742
DESCRIPTION:*Abstract*\n\nModelling climate-induced mobility is one of the
  most pressing challenges in the Central Sahel and neighbouring regions\, 
 where environmental stressors such as droughts\, extreme temperatures\, an
 d erratic rainfall are increasingly displacing vulnerable communities. Thi
 s is especially true for pastoralists\, a type of herders that move across
  landscapes with their livestock in search of fresh forage and water\, whi
 le allowing the land to recover. Changing climatic circumstances disrupt t
 he availability of these resources\, diminishing crop yields and forcing p
 astoralists to adjust their traditional routes in search of suitable grazi
 ng areas. Although climate models provide reasonably reliable projections 
 of future climate conditions such temperature and precipitation patterns\,
  they do not directly reveal how such environmental shifts shape human dec
 isions. Similarly\, many migration models exist\, but few capture the comb
 ined environmental\, socio-cultural and behavioural mechanisms that shape 
 pastoral mobility.\n\nThis research presents a novel approach to modelling
  mobility\, introducing a conceptual framework that integrates perception-
 based knowledge with data-driven techniques to better understand the relat
 ionship between climate variability and pastoral movements. Early hypothes
 es are informed by conversations with pastoralists\, offering insights int
 o locally grounded decision rules. Complementing this\, initial modelling 
 efforts aim to identify and predict key mediating variables\, such as past
 ure availability\, and link them to both climate conditions and mobility o
 utcomes. Establishing these connections is a critical step toward translat
 ing qualitative understanding into quantitative\, predictive analytics.\n\
 n*Bio*\n\nAline is a 2nd year PhD student co-supervised by Emily So and Em
 ily Shuckburgh in the Departments of Architecture and Computer Science at 
 the University of Cambridge. Her research sits at the intersection of data
  science\, urban planning and climate adaptation\, exploring how remote-se
 nsing and data-drive approaches can support responses to humanitarian cris
 es.
LOCATION:Room GS15 at the William Gates Building and on Zoom: https://cl-c
 am-ac-uk.zoom.us/j/4361570789?pwd=Nkl2T3ZLaTZwRm05bzRTOUUxY3Q4QT09&from=ad
 don 
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