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SUMMARY:Evolution and emergence of a novel human pathogen - Nim Arinaminpa
 thy (University of Oxford)
DTSTART:20100311T163000Z
DTEND:20100311T173000Z
UID:TALK22557@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Olivier Restif
DESCRIPTION:We consider the role that case reports can play in predictabil
 ity for emergence of a novel pathogen. In the example of H5N1 influenza\, 
 although there are continuing human cases\, the virus remains poorly trans
 mitted between humans. Here we use a simple stochastic mathematical model 
 to study connections between the evolutionary biology of a zoonotic virus\
 , in adapting for human transmission\, and the epidemiology accompanying e
 mergence of a novel strain. We find that patterns in outbreak sizes before
  emergence depend strongly on the adaptive steps that a wildtype virus mus
 t take. Moreover\, we explore the effects of contact heterogeneity in the 
 host population.
LOCATION:Meeting room 12\, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
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