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SUMMARY:BSU Seminar: “Bayesian behavioural-change epidemic models: is yo
 ur population alarmed?” - Rob Deardon\, Professor of Biostatistics\, Uni
 versity of Calgary
DTSTART:20240314T140000Z
DTEND:20240314T150000Z
UID:TALK209767@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Alison Quenault
DESCRIPTION:One of the many difficulties in modelling epidemic spread is t
 hat caused by behavioural change in the underlying population. Such change
 s in the underlying population can result in major changes in transmission
  dynamics of the disease\, making the modelling challenging. We propose a 
 model formulation where time-varying transmission is captured by the level
  of alarm in the population and specified as a function of the past epidem
 ic trajectory. The models are set in a data-augmented Bayesian framework a
 s epidemic data are often only partially observed\, and we can utilize pri
 or information to help with parameter identifiability. We consider both pa
 rametric and nonparametric approaches to modelling the alarm function\, an
 d talk about recent developments such as "lockdown fatigue" mechanisms and
  multivariable alarm functions. 
LOCATION:MRC Biostatistics Unit\, East Forvie Building\, Forvie Site Robin
 son Way Cambridge CB2 0SR.
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