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CATEGORIES:Physics and Chemistry of Solids Group
SUMMARY:Improved statistical estimation of impact sensitiv
ity - Dennis Christensen\, Oslo\, Norway
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20231018T150000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20231018T160000
UID:TALK205858AThttp://talks.cam.ac.uk
URL:http://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/205858
DESCRIPTION:Accurate estimation of impact sensitivity is cruci
al for safe production\, handling\, storage and tr
ansport of energetic materials. Of particular inte
rest is the median h50\, namely the impact energy
level at which there is a probability of 50% of an
explosion occurring. This value has been shown to
correlate with quantum chemical properties of the
energetic material in question\, providing insigh
t into the underlying causes which govern sensitiv
ity. However\, in practical applications\, it may
be more important to estimate extreme values like
the 99% quantile h99. In addition to providing poi
nt estimates\, we would like to derive confidence
intervals to address their uncertainty. However\,
NATO's official recommended procedure for estimati
ng impact sensitivity is based on a pen-and-paper
approximation from the late 1940s and is not suita
ble for estimating extreme quantiles nor for deriv
ing any confidence intervals. In this talk we go t
hrough the optimal ways of estimating all quantile
s and deriving confidence intervals for sensitivit
y data. We will see how these yield more insight i
nto the data obtained from experiments by means of
confidence curves\, which provide a useful graphi
cal summary of confidence intervals at all possibl
e confidence levels. An example with the explosive
HMX is given.
LOCATION:Mott Seminar Room\, Cavendish Laboratory
CONTACT:Stephen Walley
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