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SUMMARY:Investigating early warning signals and the structure and emergenc
 e of collaborations with a large-scale online experiment - Guillaume Falma
 gne (Princeton University)
DTSTART:20230810T135000Z
DTEND:20230810T141000Z
UID:TALK203128@talks.cam.ac.uk
DESCRIPTION:For three days in April 2022\, 10 million Reddit users placed 
 colored pixels on a giant canvas\, with a per-user limitation of one pixel
  every five minutes. They hence needed to collaborate to build significant
  "compositions" (i.e. pixels forming a discernible drawing)\, so this game
 -experiment provides a great window into human collective behavior. We stu
 died the transitions on the canvas (the replacement of compositions due to
  group conflicts)\, which could give general insights on transitions in ot
 her socio-ecological systems. To build an efficient warning system for the
 se transitions\, we use machine learning to combine multiple time-dependen
 t variables for each composition. The resulting early warning signals can 
 predict half of the transitions coming within 20 minutes (6 hours) with on
 ly 0.6% (18%) false positives. We also study the network structure of grou
 ps collaborating on compositions\, both on the canvas and in external comm
 unication channels. Bottom-up group formation and stigmergy might be prese
 nt\, and we investigate how resilient and probable these structures are co
 mpared to top-down organisations.\nCo-author: Annie Stephenson
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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