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SUMMARY:Quantifying Uncertainty in Assessment of Possible Exoplanet Biosig
 natures - Peter Vickers (Durham University)
DTSTART:20220209T162000Z
DTEND:20220209T164000Z
UID:TALK166840@talks.cam.ac.uk
DESCRIPTION:Suppose the latest generation of telescopes detect oxygen in t
 he atmosphere of an exoplanet. Is that a &lsquo\;biosignature&rsquo\;? At 
 one time it would have been called a biosignature (by some\, at least)\, b
 ut not now. Now we have plausible abiotic stories to tell about the presen
 ce of oxygen in the atmosphere of a planet. But what about a case - such a
 s an oxygen-methane disequilibrium - where we currently do&nbsp\;not have 
 a plausible abiotic story to tell? Should we call this a biosignature? Or 
 should we expect that in due course we will develop a plausible abiotic st
 ory? In this talk I argue that quantifying the uncertainty requires us to 
 quantify the extent to which we have explored the relevant possibility spa
 ce\, a very difficult thing to do. A Bayesian approach to quantifying the 
 relevant uncertainty seems unhelpful.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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