epidemic at a fine spatial scale\, using mo bile phone mobility data\, to describe

the geog raphical spread of the virus. The model is develop ed for the very early

phase of the epidemic\, w hen movement of individuals plays a key role. In t he

beginning\, importation of the virus into th e region of interest is decisive\,

and we estim ate the proportion of unknown imported cases. Our model represents

non-pharmaceutical interventio ns to contain the epidemic by means of a

region ally varying step function of the effective reprod uction numbers. The

regionally varying effectiv e reproduction numbers are estimated by sequential

Approximate Bayesian Computing\, using hospita lisation data of the infected

individuals at re gional level. For prediction\, we develop a way to regularise

the mobility matrices\, to conserve the geographical distribution of the

populatio n. This allows adequate long term predictions of a ll quantities of

interest. Uncertainty in the p arameters (both the estimated ones and the ones

learned from the literature) is prolonged into th e future by simulation. We use

our model to des cribe the history of the first phase of the COVID- 19 epidemic

in Norway\, during which social dis tancing and hygienic measures have been

adopted together with teleworking and school closure and reopening. The result

of these measures have re duced the presence of the virus in Norway to such a

low level\, leading to a relaxation of restri ctions\, to resemble the early phase

of the epi demic\, making our model again important. We compa re the results of

our model to the ones obtaine d by a similar nonregional model. We also

devel oped a version of the model which has a time varyi ng reproduction number.

In this case we resort to Sequential Monte Carlo for inference. I will di scuss

the difficulties in making predictions us ing this model. This is joint work with Birgitte F reiesleben de Blasio\, Solveig

Engebretsen\, Gu nnar Isaksson Rø\;\, Alfonso Diz-Lois Paloma res\, Kenth Engø\;-Monsen\,

Anja Brå \;then Kristoffersen and Geir Storvik. LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute CONTACT:INI IT END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR