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SUMMARY:Marissa McBride (Imperial) - Lessons from structured expert elicit
 ation using the IDEA protocol - 
DTSTART:20200610T143500Z
DTEND:20200610T150500Z
UID:TALK148618@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:Abstract: Expert<br>judgment can support policy decision-makin
 g in situations where data are<br>scarce\, knowledge is incomplete and dec
 isions are imminent. Research has demonstrated<br>both the potential value
  and the potential dangers of expert judgments\, and<br>established the be
 nefit of using systematic\, structured procedures to elicit<br>judgments f
 rom experts which anticipate and correct for the most severe and<br>predic
 table limitations of expert opinion. In this presentation I outline the<br
 >origins and development of the IDEA protocol\, a Delphi-style structured<
 br>elicitation procedure that combines psychologically robust interactions
  among<br>experts with mathematical aggregation of individual estimates an
 d structured<br>question formats to improve the accuracy of elicited judgm
 ents. I discuss<br>examples and emerging insights from its use to support 
 decision-making across a<br>range of applications including biosecurity\, 
 natural resource management and<br>real-time geopolitical forecasting. Dra
 wing from these experiences I reflect on<br>the challenges presented by CO
 VID-19 and how structured elicitation procedures<br>might best support epi
 demiological modelling and simulation efforts in<br>providing timely publi
 c health policy advice.<br><br><br><br>Resources:<br><br>IDEA protocol for
  structured expert elicitation<br>&ndash\; key reference<br><br>1. Hemming
 \,<br>Victoria\, et al. "A practical guide to structured expert elicitatio
 n using<br>the IDEA protocol."Methods in Ecology and Evolution9.1<br>(2018
 ): 169-180.<br><br>[This article provides a practical step-by-step<br>guid
 e to carrying out a structured elicitation using the IDEA protocol. The<br
 >supplementary information includes ready-made templates and resources for
 <br>planning and implementing a structured elicitation using IDEA]<br><br>
 An excellent introductory blog post discussing<br>this article and the nee
 d for structured expert elicitation is available here: https://methodsblog
 .com/2018/03/27/idea-protocol-2/<br><br>Expert elicitation references &nda
 sh\; introductory<br>& overview<br><br>2. Morgan\, M.<br>Granger. "Use (an
 d abuse) of expert elicitation in support of decision<br>making for public
  policy."Proceedings of the National academy of<br>Sciences111.20 (2014): 
 7176-7184.<br><br>[Excellent overview article for using expert<br>judgment
  that is accessible for most audiences\, and with an excellent reference<b
 r>list for further reading]<br><br>3. Alahmadi\, Amani\, et al. "Influenci
 ng<br>public health policy with data-informed mathematical models of infec
 tious<br>diseases: Recent developments and new challenges."Epidemics(2020)
 :<br>100393.<br><br>[Includes coverage of the role and challenges for<br>e
 xpert elicitation from the perspective of modelling infectious diseases] <
 br><br><br><br>Cognitive Biases<br><br>4. Cognitive biases infographic. St
 ructured elicitation<br>protocols include steps that attempt to reduce the
  impacts of many of these<br>biases on the judgments elicited from experts
 . <br><br>https://www.visualcapitalist.com/every-single-cognitive-bias/<br
 ><br><br>A<br>more complete version of the cognitive biases infographic th
 at includes<br>definitions of each of the biases is also available here
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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