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SUMMARY:Katriona Shea (Penn State) - Harnessing multiple models for outbre
ak management -
DTSTART:20200610T140500Z
DTEND:20200610T143500Z
UID:TALK148615@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:Abstract:
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) p
andemic
has triggered efforts by multiple modeling groups to forecast d
isease
trajectory\, assess interventions\, and improve understanding of
the pathogen.
Such models can often differ substantially in their proj
ections and
recommendations\, reflecting different policy assumptions a
nd objectives\, as
well as scientific\, logistical\, and other unc
ertainty about
biological and management processes. Disparate predictio
ns during any outbreak
can hinder intervention planning and response by
policy-makers\, who may instead
choose to rely on single trusted sourc
es of advice\, or on consensus where it
appears. Thus\, valuable insigh
ts and information from other models may be
overlooked\, limiting the o
pportunity for decision-makers to account for risk
and uncertainty and
resulting in more lives lost or resources used than
necessary. We advoc
ate a more systematic approach\, by merging two
well-established resear
ch fields. The first element involves formal expert
elicitation methods
applied to multiple models to deliberately generate\,
retain\, and syn
thesize valuable individual model ideas and share important
insights du
ring group discussions\, while minimizing various cognitive biases.
The
second element uses a decision-theoretic framework to capture and account
for within- and between-model uncertainty as we evaluate actions in a
timely
manner to achieve management objectives.
Resource
s:
·\;
Bjø\;rnstad\, O.\,Shea\, K.\, Krzywinski\, M.
&
Altman\, N. (2020) Modelling Infectious Epidemics.Nature Methods(202
0).https://doi.org/10.1038/s41592-020-0822-z
·\;
Associate
d
shiny app: https://github.com/martinkrz/posepi1.
·\;
Outreach
seminar &ldquo\;Disease outbreak control: Harnessing the power
of multiple models to
work smarter\, not harder&rdquo\;: https://scien
ce.psu.edu/frontiers
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/64
91/577.summary
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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