BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//Talks.cam//talks.cam.ac.uk// X-WR-CALNAME:Talks.cam BEGIN:VEVENT SUMMARY:Kevin Wilson (Newcastle) - Uncertainty elicitation and quantificat ion from experts - DTSTART:20200610T133500Z DTEND:20200610T140500Z UID:TALK148612@talks.cam.ac.uk CONTACT:INI IT DESCRIPTION:Abstract:

The incorporation of uncertainty in assessme nts and
predictions from mathematical models is critical\, especially i f the models are
to be used to support real-world decisions. In fast mo ving situations such as a
global pandemic of an infectious disease\, th en data to parameterise models are
typically patchy and incomplete\, an d sufficient suitable data may not exist for
many parameters in model r uns of possible future scenarios. In such cases
expert judgements can p lay an important role\, both to specify uncertainty
distributions for p arameters with no available data and to supplement data
where they are available (via Bayes Theorem\, or more informally). In this talk
I will discuss the elicitation of uncertainty distributions for individual
un knowns from a single expert\, the combination of the opinions of multiple< br>experts on an unknown into a single uncertainty distribution and the
elicitation of graphical models\, with an emphasis on Bayesian networks\, to
produce suitable model structures from experts over multiple depend ent
unknowns. I will emphasise a behavioural aggregation approach\, the SHeffield
Elicitation Framework (SHELF)\, for the combination of the o pinions of multiple
experts\, which will complement the talk from Prof Aspinall on a mathematical
aggregation approach\, the Classical Method. A running example on the
development of a diagnostic test will be used to illustrate the ideas\, and I
will try to bring out particular issue s surrounding infectious disease
modelling.



Resources:
·\;A probabilistic judgements e-learning course\, aimed at
explaining elicitation generally and the Sheffield ELicitation Frameworkspecifically:http://www.tonyohagan.co.uk/shelf/ecourse.htm

&middo t\;A textbook providing comprehensive coverage of
elicitation: O'\;H agan et al (2006). Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts'\;
Probab ilities\, Wiley.

·\;Resources to conduct an elicitation using SHELF
including slide sets\, advice and document templates:http://www. tonyohagan.co.uk/shelf/

·\;A series of short videos for an on line course on
Structured Expert Judgment provided by TU Delft (links a re near the top of the
page):http://rogermcooke.net/

·\;A textbook discussing the elicitation of probabilistic
models: J. Q. Smit h (2010). Bayesian decision analysis: principles and
practice. Cambridg e University Press.

LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR