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CATEGORIES:Worms and Bugs
SUMMARY:Modelling Large Scale Epidemiological Modelling of
Infectious Tree Disease - John Holden\, Leeds
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20191115T160000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20191115T170000
UID:TALK134071AThttp://talks.cam.ac.uk
URL:http://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/134071
DESCRIPTION:Modelling epidemics in tree populations can be add
ressed on a variety of scales and resolutions. Ind
ividual tree-to-tree interactions are responsible
for all emergent epidemics through countries and c
ontinents\, however\, modelling all interactions o
ver the whole population is presently unfeasible.
To address this\, we develop a sub-grid modelling
framework combining two different models at differ
ent scales. The hybrid model uses a smaller scale
Monte Carlo sub-grid model at resolution 5 m^2 tha
t informs a reactive-diffusive (RD) PDE model at r
esolution 1 km^2. The Monte Carlo sub-grid model i
s based on compartmentalised SIR with non-local di
spersion and is shown to demonstrate travelling wa
ve-like behaviour when ensemble-averaged. The RD P
DE system chosen is the F-K-P-P (or Fisher Kolmogo
rov) model\, the simplest model that demonstrates
the propagation of travelling waves and logistic g
rowth of the pathogen. From simple epidemiological
input parameters and a (modelled) abundance datas
et\, the travelling wave-speeds of the sub-grid ar
e predetermined and mapped to diffusion coefficien
ts that inform the FKPP equation. The FKPP equatio
n is then numerically simulated with a finite-diff
erence method to approximate a pathogen spreading
through UK tree population. This framework attempt
s to aid efforts in developing flexible\, generali
sable\, large-scale epidemic models based on small
scale epidemiological principles.
LOCATION:Meeting room 15\, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
CONTACT:Prof. Julia Gog
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