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SUMMARY:Analysing effects of short- and long-term uncertainty on capacit
y expansion in European electricity markets - Asgeir Tomasgard (Norwegian
University of Science and Technology)
DTSTART:20190320T120000Z
DTEND:20190320T124500Z
UID:TALK121324@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:INI IT
DESCRIPTION:The
EMPIRE model is a European multiscale power market mo
del with investments
towards 2050 as well as representative hours. It
is well suited to capture
operational uncertainty in generation from
intermittent energy sources like
wind and sun. In the short-run
horizon\, typical uncertainty is
in load\, intermittent generation a
nd inflows to hydro reservoirs. Short-run
sources of flexibility are
regulated hydropower\, storages\, fossil generators
and demand respon
se. In the long run uncertain factors include learning curves\, policy unc
ertainty\,
long-term commodity process and demand trends. In this pap
er we add long-term
uncertainty to the formulation. The resulting mod
els are large scale
stochastic multi-stage recourse models with hundr
ed of millions of variables.
We present both solution methods and ana
lysis of the most important factors.
In the short-run horizon\, typic
al
uncertainty is in load\, intermittent
generation and inflows
to hydro reservoirs. Short-run sources of flexibility
are regulated h
ydropower\, storages\, fossil generators and demand response. In
the
long run uncertain factors include
learning curves\, policy uncertain
ty\, long-term commodity process and
demand trends. We look at the Eu
ropean level and analyze questions like to what extent the demand response
potential
can facilitate an optimal transition to an European low em
ission power system
and how does long-term uncertainty affect the inv
estments in renewables.
LOCATION:Seminar Room 1\, Newton Institute
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