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CATEGORIES:Plant Sciences Research Seminars
SUMMARY:Detecting asymptomatic infection is necessary for 
 real-time forecasting of major outbreaks of diseas
 e - Robin Thompson
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20140606T133000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20140606T135500
UID:TALK51410AThttp://talks.cam.ac.uk
URL:http://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/51410
DESCRIPTION:When an infectious disease is introduced into a ho
 st population of plants\, the pathogen typically e
 ither dies out without causing a large epidemic or
  goes on to become widespread in the population.  
 Mathematical models can be used to predict whether
  the pathogen will die out or whether a major outb
 reak will occur.  For all common infectious diseas
 es\, individuals are asymptomatic immediately afte
 r acquiring the pathogen.  Determining the number 
 of individuals that are infected but not yet sympt
 omatic is vital for accurately calculating the pro
 bability of a major outbreak.  We show that estima
 ting the quantity of asymptomatic infecteds is as 
 important as traditional parameter estimation (foc
 ussed on estimating traits of the disease\, such a
 s the infection rate\, incubation and infectious p
 eriods).  The main implication of our findings is 
 that developing affordable diagnostic tests to det
 ect infection in asymptomatic infected individuals
  is of critical importance in plant epidemiology. 
  Our results are also applicable to human and anim
 al diseases.
LOCATION:Department of Plant Sciences\, Large Lecture Theat
 re
CONTACT:Megan Cooper
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