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SUMMARY:Risk: Trying to quantify our uncertainty - Professor David Spiegel
 halter\, University of Cambridge
DTSTART:20100115T173000Z
DTEND:20100115T183000Z
UID:TALK19079@talks.cam.ac.uk
CONTACT:Janet Gibson
DESCRIPTION:Biography\n\nDavid Spiegelhalter is Winton Professor of the Pu
 blic Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge\, which he combi
 nes with being a Senior Scientist in the MRC Biostatistics Unit.  His back
 ground is in medical statistics\, particularly the use of Bayesian methods
  in clinical trials\, health technology assessment and drug safety.  He le
 d the statistical team in the Bristol Royal Infirmary Inquiry and also gav
 e evidence to the Shipman Inquiry.  He has been a consultant to a number o
 f public and private organizations including pharmaceutical companies.\n\n
 In his new post he leads a small team which is attempting to improve the w
 ay in which the quantitative aspects of risk and uncertainty are discussed
  in society.\n\nHe was elected FRS in 2005 and awarded an OBE in 2006 for 
 services to medical statistics\n\nAbstract\n\nThere has been a traditional
  division between 'risk'\, which can be quantified using probability distr
 ibutions\, and 'uncertainty'\, which is the surrounding mess of doubt\, di
 sagreement and ignorance.  In well-understood situations we may be happy t
 o quote reasonable odds for future events\, and I shall look at ways in wh
 ich these risks can be communicated visually.  When the problem is more co
 mplex\, analysts may use a mixture of judgement and historical data to con
 struct a mathematical model that can assess future risks\, but deeper unce
 rtainties may be glossed over. I will use examples from swine flu to clima
 te change to illustrate different approaches to dealing with uncertainty\,
  from ignoring it to trying to fully quantify it\, and conclude that we sh
 ould all try to be aware and open about the magnitude and potential conseq
 uences of our ignorance. 
LOCATION:LMH\, Lady Mitchell Hall
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