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CATEGORIES:Worms and Bugs
SUMMARY:Modelling Large Scale Epidemiological Modelling of
  Infectious Tree Disease - John Holden\, Leeds
DTSTART;TZID=Europe/London:20191115T160000
DTEND;TZID=Europe/London:20191115T170000
UID:TALK134071AThttp://talks.cam.ac.uk
URL:http://talks.cam.ac.uk/talk/index/134071
DESCRIPTION:Modelling epidemics in tree populations can be add
 ressed on a variety of scales and resolutions. Ind
 ividual tree-to-tree interactions are responsible 
 for all emergent epidemics through countries and c
 ontinents\, however\, modelling all interactions o
 ver the whole population is presently unfeasible. 
 To address this\, we develop a sub-grid modelling 
 framework combining two different models at differ
 ent scales. The hybrid model uses a smaller scale 
 Monte Carlo sub-grid model at resolution 5 m^2 tha
 t informs a reactive-diffusive (RD) PDE model at r
 esolution 1 km^2. The Monte Carlo sub-grid model i
 s based on compartmentalised SIR with non-local di
 spersion and is shown to demonstrate travelling wa
 ve-like behaviour when ensemble-averaged. The RD P
 DE system chosen is the F-K-P-P (or Fisher Kolmogo
 rov) model\, the simplest model that demonstrates 
 the propagation of travelling waves and logistic g
 rowth of the pathogen. From simple epidemiological
  input parameters and a (modelled) abundance datas
 et\, the travelling wave-speeds of the sub-grid ar
 e predetermined and mapped to diffusion coefficien
 ts that inform the FKPP equation. The FKPP equatio
 n is then numerically simulated with a finite-diff
 erence method to approximate a pathogen spreading 
 through UK tree population. This framework attempt
 s to aid efforts in developing flexible\, generali
 sable\, large-scale epidemic models based on small
  scale epidemiological principles.
LOCATION:Meeting room 15\, Centre for Mathematical Sciences
CONTACT:Prof. Julia Gog
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