Assessing the probative value of gunshot residues at activity level: from likelihood ratio to decision making issues

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• Charles Sauleau (Université de Franche-Comté)
• Tuesday 08 November 2016, 10:15-11:00
• Seminar Room 1, Newton Institute.

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A murder case did involve many shots that, according to a witness, had been done from a car. A suspect was arrested and investigations were done into his car and his house. Some important quantities of gunshot residues were found, and as the suspect had a proposition in order to explain the only presence of gunshot residues in the car; the challenging question became the quantity of particles. The bayesian approcah was then applied. Two populations were built in order to assess the probability to observe the results in each of both propositions, defense and prosecution. It did lead to a conclusion made thanks to Evett'as verbal scale. Gunshot residues evidence was the only evidence in that case, and had an important role in the final judgement. This case emphasized the need to understand decision making issues, to arouse the interest of decision makers on these special reasoning issues, specially when the decision maker has to deal with uncertainties : Ellsberg's paradox is then helpful to understand some decision makers reactions.

This talk is part of the Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series series.

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