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To establish improbable events with improbable evidence.

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In late spring 1945, U.S. Supreme Court Justice Robert H. Jackson, Chief of Counsel for the United States appointed to prosecute the principal Nazi war criminals in Nuremberg, wrote, in a letter to President Truman that he saw it as his duty to ‘establish incredible events by credible evidence’. He probably had reason to be confident in his ability to do this, as the allied prosecutors had gathered not less than 3,000 tons of documentary evidence. Today’s international prosecutors face a much more difficult task in this regard. Qualitative evidence is difficult to obtain and so often prosecutors have to rely on ‘subprime’ evidence. The question therefore arises whether it is possible to prove complex events according to the beyond reasonable doubt standard with subprime circumstantial evidence. This paper will try to address this question from a probabilistic point of view on the basis of a concrete example from a real case before the International Criminal Court.



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