Predicting wind extremes in a warming climate: from general circulation to storm-resolving models via improved turbulence representation

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• Emanuele Silvio Gentile, University of Reading
• Monday 13 October 2025, 13:00-14:00
• MR3, CMS.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact Bethan Wynne-Cattanach.

A wave of unprecedented extreme weather events, breaking records worldwide, has raised urgent questions about the ability of current weather and climate models to anticipate the emerging impacts of climate change on human life and infrastructure. Among these, extreme wind speeds and gusts, often associated with midlatitude cyclones and low-level jets, pose a growing threat to critical sectors of society. In this talk, I will first present projections of near-surface extreme winds over the midlatitudes of both hemispheres under an idealized warming scenario, based on CMIP -class models. I will then illustrate how global kilometer-scale simulations may provide new insight into how the structure and intensity of North Atlantic midlatitude cyclones respond to climate warming. Finally, I will discuss results from a set of experiments with the GFDL -AM4 model that incorporate improved turbulence representation via the CLUBB scheme. These highlight the role of prognosed momentum fluxes in better capturing low-level jet dynamics and improving the simulation of the diurnal precipitation cycle. Together, these studies demonstrate the importance of refined physics and high-resolution modeling for advancing our understanding and prediction of wind extremes in a warming climate.

This talk is part of the Quantitative Climate and Environmental Science Seminars series.

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