Calibration of a Coupled Ice-Ocean Model of West Antarctica - Brad reed and Jan De Rydt

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• Jan De Rydt (University of Northumbria), Brad Reed (University of Northumbria)
• Wednesday 15 October 2025, 14:00-15:00
• BAS Seminar Room 2.

If you have a question about this talk, please contact Katherine Turner.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has experienced sustained mass loss over the past three decades, a trend projected to continue in future climate scenarios. This loss is primarily driven by basal melting along the Amundsen Sea coast, where warm ocean waters interact with floating ice shelves. Internal ice dynamics further modulate the ice sheet’s response to ocean forcing, highlighting the need for coupled modelling approaches.

In this study, I present the calibration of a new coupled ice-ocean model of West Antarctica, covering the region from the Abbot to the Getz basins, including key glaciers such as Pine Island and Thwaites. The ice sheet component is simulated using the ice-flow model Úa, optimised in two stages to match present-day conditions. This is coupled offline to the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm), which incorporates sea ice and ice shelf thermodynamics and is driven by historical atmospheric reanalyses.

We assess the sensitivity of the coupled model hindcast to melt rate parameters in MITgcm and calibrate it against observations of basal melt rates, and changes in ice velocity and ice thickness over recent decades. This represents the first such calibration using both oceanic and glaciological observations. The results presented here will inform optimal melt parameters for other models. Additionally, our historically calibrated model will be used to predict future sea level contributions and help us to better constrain the complex interplay between ice dynamics and ocean forcing in West Antarctica.

Link to the teams meeting: https://teams.microsoft.com/l/meetup-join/19%3ameeting_MjE5MmIxMGYtNzllMC00MmNlLTlhMDMtMmE1MWJjNGVmNzQ4%40thread.v2/0?context=%7b%22Tid%22%3a%22b311db95-32ad-438f-a101-7ba061712a4e%22%2c%22Oid%22%3a%229a5b5150-2ddd-43f0-9054-966647264d30%22%7d

PLEASE NOTE If you are external to BAS and wish to attend please email the organisers in advance so they can organise to meet you in reception !!!

This talk is part of the British Antarctic Survey - Polar Oceans seminar series series.

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