University of Cambridge > Talks.cam > Isaac Newton Institute Seminar Series > Microsimulation, Nik Lomax, Karyn Morrissey and Jamil Nur

Microsimulation, Nik Lomax, Karyn Morrissey and Jamil Nur

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IDP - Infectious Dynamics of Pandemics: Mathematical and statistical challenges in understanding the dynamics of infectious disease pandemics

In order to estimate the patterns of movement, interaction with public spaces and potential risk of exposure to COVID -19, we need a detailed dataset containing individuals, their characteristics and there geographical location. These individuals are used in other models within the DECOVID ecosystem. We use spatial microsimulation techniques to generate the baseline population of individuals and an algorithm for assigning individuals to household to provide estimates at Middle Super Output area level. Further attributes are added to this population, derived from survey data using propensity score matching. We assess the spatial distribution of these populations and the daily activity spaces they inhabit.




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